Carl Bialik details some of the problems with childhood obesity statistics.
Obesity rates could have hit a plateau, some scientists propose, if
only a certain percentage of children are genetically predisposed to
obesity, and that share has gotten fat already. Timothy Olds, a
professor of health sciences at the University of South Australia,
believes genetics could play a role, but he also points to "all the
little things people are doing to encourage healthy weight."
Some researchers argue the data used to produce these conclusions
are flawed. And other scientists say that while the methodology of the
recent batch of studies appears sound, the findings aren't definitive.
Future surveys using different methodologies, they say, could show
obesity rates on the move again.
"Most developed countries are not doing annual surveys," says Tim
Lobstein, director of policy and programs for the International Obesity
Taskforce, a London-based research and advocacy group. "We probably
know more about growth patterns in cattle than we do for human
children."
In the U.S., obesity rates among children hovered at about 16%
between 2002 and 2006, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention. The leveling off was a surprise to William
Dietz, director of the CDC's division of nutrition, physical activity
and obesity, who notes that prominent anti-obesity-awareness campaigns
have only been around for a few years. (A survey conducted by the
National Opinion Research Center, a group based at the University of
Chicago, showed increases in most states between 2003 and 2007, but
that was based on phone interviews rather than physical examinations.)
Bialik continues,
Some health advocates have been leery of giving too much attention
to the encouraging numbers, noting that a plateau or small decrease
won't stave off the high financial and medical toll likely in store for
today's overweight children.
"What I worry about is that people will read these numbers and think
we've got this solved," says Dr. Dietz of the CDC. "I'm encouraged by
the results, but this is no time for complacency."
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